Mar 2022: Cat B and E threaten $100k barrier, supply for next period projected to shrink slightly
28 Mar 2022|1,341 views
COE price trend over the past quarter: Jan to Mar 2022 vs Oct to Dec 2021
It's a sign of how dire the times are for new car buyers that the axes we've used for our graphs in the previous two quarters no longer apply anymore.
COE premiums in both Category B and E have surpassed the levels they were at back in 2013 Continuing their upward trend, Category B and the open Category E are now both threatening the $100,000 barrier. Forget the previously-mentioned six-year record; both categories have surpassed nine-year highs. At the same time, Category A hasn't been slouching either. $70,000 for a certificate in this category is something we haven't seen since 2014.
Despite the towering numbers, the jumps in average COE prices in the period of Jan to March 2022 were actually generally lower than those in the previous quarter. The average COE price across Jan to Feb 2022 is 17% higher for Cat A, 12% higher for Cat B, and more than 8% higher for Cat E in the current quarter as compared to the last one. Except for Cat A, which had jumped by 16% previously, both Cats B and E had previously risen then by more than 30%.
A single digit percentage increase for Cat E may sound too low to be true, but we must remember that the open category has been at this level for a while. It neared $90,000 back in November 2021, then briefly went back down to the low eighties before shooting even higher towards $100,000, where it now hovers alongside Cat B.
A new 220% ARF rate now applies to cars with an Open Market Value of $80,000 and above Unless you really haven't been paying attention, you'll also know the LTA has been busy.
The past quarter saw two major announcements hitting the automotive market. The first, already in place, was a new 220% ARF (Additional Registration Fee) rate that impacted new luxury purchases in mid-February, less than a week after it was introduced to the public. The second, set to kick in this May, is a long-overdue widening of the power band eligibility that will allow more electric vehicles to come under Category A.
Vehicle de-registration and COE supply forecasting
Based on data extrapolated from de-registrations spanning the months from January to March this year, our statistical forecasting suggests that COE supply will continue to shrink - by about 3% - for the next period between May and July 2022.
According to statistical forecasting, the slight projected increases in Cat A and E quotas are unlikely to mitigate the shrinkage in Cat B The overall dip should largely be the doing of Cat B, where COE quota is projected to drop by 12% from the outgoing monthly average of 1,099. On the other hand, COE quota for Cat A is projected to increase by 3% from the outgoing monthly average of 1,062. The COE quota for Cat E, as well, is projected to move up by 11% from the outgoing monthly average of 360.
Ultimately, the supply of COEs actually dipped when we entered the February to April 2022 period - from a monthly average (Cats A, B and E combined) of 2526 across November 2021 to January 2022, to 2521 currently. For context, the monthly average across August to October 2021 was 3540.
While the gentler drop may have helped to slow the climb in prices, it certainly hasn't changed the upward trend, nor its steadiness. Will the introduction of EVs accelerate and sustain even higher premiums in Category A? It's too soon to call that.
New car pricing trend: Jan 2022 to March 2022
In spite of their apparently slowing growth rate, new car prices are still very daunting in the present-day sgCarMart uses a pool of popular models from authorised dealers to analyse the general price trends of new cars. Based on our sample of between 15-20 models, there was a 2.7% quarter on quarter increase, compared to the previous monthly average between October to December 2021. This pales in comparison to the 12% increase witnessed across the two previous quarters.
Once again, the figures may have been affected by the fact that COE premiums held quite steady in January, and only started picking up again towards the end of the quarter.
Most popular used cars: Dec 2021 to Feb 2022
Over the three-month period between December 2021 to February 2022, these were the five most listed used cars on sgCarMart.
It's once again a game of musical chairs among the top five models, with the 2016 Honda Vezel 1.5A X retaining its crown, and Civics registered in 2018 and 2019 rounding off the pack.
What's interesting, though, is the slowly amplifying impact of the current COE climate on the used car market. You'll note that average annual depreciations for used cars are on the rise, reaching new peaks in March (where the figure for the Vezel almost breached $12,000/year). Expect these to continue their ascent if the COE quota continues to shrink.
Mitsubishi Evo 9s are being listed on our Used Cars site with annual depreciations in the territory of $40,000 The past quarter also brought it with it renewed attention to older performance models that were released in more limited quantities.
Ignoring the one-off case of the heavily-memed AE86, cars like the FD2 Honda Civic Type R and the Mitsubishi Evo X are selling in the used car market with annual depreciations in the ballpark of $20,000. Step a bit further back in time to the Evo 9 and that figure will balloon even further to approximately $40,000. Again - perhaps it's time to rethink our tale-as-old-as-time that cars are just depreciating assets.
Curious about how the car market was trending just a few months back? Check out our COE analyses for the previous periods below!
Jan 2022: COE prices continue to climb, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to increase slightly
Oct 2021: Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly
It's a sign of how dire the times are for new car buyers that the axes we've used for our graphs in the previous two quarters no longer apply anymore.
Despite the towering numbers, the jumps in average COE prices in the period of Jan to March 2022 were actually generally lower than those in the previous quarter. The average COE price across Jan to Feb 2022 is 17% higher for Cat A, 12% higher for Cat B, and more than 8% higher for Cat E in the current quarter as compared to the last one. Except for Cat A, which had jumped by 16% previously, both Cats B and E had previously risen then by more than 30%.
A single digit percentage increase for Cat E may sound too low to be true, but we must remember that the open category has been at this level for a while. It neared $90,000 back in November 2021, then briefly went back down to the low eighties before shooting even higher towards $100,000, where it now hovers alongside Cat B.
The past quarter saw two major announcements hitting the automotive market. The first, already in place, was a new 220% ARF (Additional Registration Fee) rate that impacted new luxury purchases in mid-February, less than a week after it was introduced to the public. The second, set to kick in this May, is a long-overdue widening of the power band eligibility that will allow more electric vehicles to come under Category A.
Vehicle de-registration and COE supply forecasting
Based on data extrapolated from de-registrations spanning the months from January to March this year, our statistical forecasting suggests that COE supply will continue to shrink - by about 3% - for the next period between May and July 2022.
Ultimately, the supply of COEs actually dipped when we entered the February to April 2022 period - from a monthly average (Cats A, B and E combined) of 2526 across November 2021 to January 2022, to 2521 currently. For context, the monthly average across August to October 2021 was 3540.
While the gentler drop may have helped to slow the climb in prices, it certainly hasn't changed the upward trend, nor its steadiness. Will the introduction of EVs accelerate and sustain even higher premiums in Category A? It's too soon to call that.
New car pricing trend: Jan 2022 to March 2022
Once again, the figures may have been affected by the fact that COE premiums held quite steady in January, and only started picking up again towards the end of the quarter.
Most popular used cars: Dec 2021 to Feb 2022
Over the three-month period between December 2021 to February 2022, these were the five most listed used cars on sgCarMart.
| Model | Year of registration | Average depreciation (approx.) |
| Honda Vezel 1.5A X | 2016 | $11,487/yr |
| Mercedes-Benz C-Class C180 Avantgarde | 2016 | $17,995/yr |
| Toyota Corolla Altis Elegance 1.6 | 2016 | $11,017/yr |
| Honda Civic 1.6A VTi | 2018 | $11,676/yr |
| Honda Civic 1.6A VTi | 2019 | $11,410/yr |
It's once again a game of musical chairs among the top five models, with the 2016 Honda Vezel 1.5A X retaining its crown, and Civics registered in 2018 and 2019 rounding off the pack.
What's interesting, though, is the slowly amplifying impact of the current COE climate on the used car market. You'll note that average annual depreciations for used cars are on the rise, reaching new peaks in March (where the figure for the Vezel almost breached $12,000/year). Expect these to continue their ascent if the COE quota continues to shrink.
Ignoring the one-off case of the heavily-memed AE86, cars like the FD2 Honda Civic Type R and the Mitsubishi Evo X are selling in the used car market with annual depreciations in the ballpark of $20,000. Step a bit further back in time to the Evo 9 and that figure will balloon even further to approximately $40,000. Again - perhaps it's time to rethink our tale-as-old-as-time that cars are just depreciating assets.
Curious about how the car market was trending just a few months back? Check out our COE analyses for the previous periods below!
Jan 2022: COE prices continue to climb, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to increase slightly
Oct 2021: Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly
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COE price trend over the past quarter: Jan to Mar 2022 vs Oct to Dec 2021
It's a sign of how dire the times are for new car buyers that the axes we've used for our graphs in the previous two quarters no longer apply anymore.
COE premiums in both Category B and E have surpassed the levels they were at back in 2013 Continuing their upward trend, Category B and the open Category E are now both threatening the $100,000 barrier. Forget the previously-mentioned six-year record; both categories have surpassed nine-year highs. At the same time, Category A hasn't been slouching either. $70,000 for a certificate in this category is something we haven't seen since 2014.
Despite the towering numbers, the jumps in average COE prices in the period of Jan to March 2022 were actually generally lower than those in the previous quarter. The average COE price across Jan to Feb 2022 is 17% higher for Cat A, 12% higher for Cat B, and more than 8% higher for Cat E in the current quarter as compared to the last one. Except for Cat A, which had jumped by 16% previously, both Cats B and E had previously risen then by more than 30%.
A single digit percentage increase for Cat E may sound too low to be true, but we must remember that the open category has been at this level for a while. It neared $90,000 back in November 2021, then briefly went back down to the low eighties before shooting even higher towards $100,000, where it now hovers alongside Cat B.
A new 220% ARF rate now applies to cars with an Open Market Value of $80,000 and above Unless you really haven't been paying attention, you'll also know the LTA has been busy.
The past quarter saw two major announcements hitting the automotive market. The first, already in place, was a new 220% ARF (Additional Registration Fee) rate that impacted new luxury purchases in mid-February, less than a week after it was introduced to the public. The second, set to kick in this May, is a long-overdue widening of the power band eligibility that will allow more electric vehicles to come under Category A.
Vehicle de-registration and COE supply forecasting
Based on data extrapolated from de-registrations spanning the months from January to March this year, our statistical forecasting suggests that COE supply will continue to shrink - by about 3% - for the next period between May and July 2022.
According to statistical forecasting, the slight projected increases in Cat A and E quotas are unlikely to mitigate the shrinkage in Cat B The overall dip should largely be the doing of Cat B, where COE quota is projected to drop by 12% from the outgoing monthly average of 1,099. On the other hand, COE quota for Cat A is projected to increase by 3% from the outgoing monthly average of 1,062. The COE quota for Cat E, as well, is projected to move up by 11% from the outgoing monthly average of 360.
Ultimately, the supply of COEs actually dipped when we entered the February to April 2022 period - from a monthly average (Cats A, B and E combined) of 2526 across November 2021 to January 2022, to 2521 currently. For context, the monthly average across August to October 2021 was 3540.
While the gentler drop may have helped to slow the climb in prices, it certainly hasn't changed the upward trend, nor its steadiness. Will the introduction of EVs accelerate and sustain even higher premiums in Category A? It's too soon to call that.
New car pricing trend: Jan 2022 to March 2022
In spite of their apparently slowing growth rate, new car prices are still very daunting in the present-day sgCarMart uses a pool of popular models from authorised dealers to analyse the general price trends of new cars. Based on our sample of between 15-20 models, there was a 2.7% quarter on quarter increase, compared to the previous monthly average between October to December 2021. This pales in comparison to the 12% increase witnessed across the two previous quarters.
Once again, the figures may have been affected by the fact that COE premiums held quite steady in January, and only started picking up again towards the end of the quarter.
Most popular used cars: Dec 2021 to Feb 2022
Over the three-month period between December 2021 to February 2022, these were the five most listed used cars on sgCarMart.
It's once again a game of musical chairs among the top five models, with the 2016 Honda Vezel 1.5A X retaining its crown, and Civics registered in 2018 and 2019 rounding off the pack.
What's interesting, though, is the slowly amplifying impact of the current COE climate on the used car market. You'll note that average annual depreciations for used cars are on the rise, reaching new peaks in March (where the figure for the Vezel almost breached $12,000/year). Expect these to continue their ascent if the COE quota continues to shrink.
Mitsubishi Evo 9s are being listed on our Used Cars site with annual depreciations in the territory of $40,000 The past quarter also brought it with it renewed attention to older performance models that were released in more limited quantities.
Ignoring the one-off case of the heavily-memed AE86, cars like the FD2 Honda Civic Type R and the Mitsubishi Evo X are selling in the used car market with annual depreciations in the ballpark of $20,000. Step a bit further back in time to the Evo 9 and that figure will balloon even further to approximately $40,000. Again - perhaps it's time to rethink our tale-as-old-as-time that cars are just depreciating assets.
Curious about how the car market was trending just a few months back? Check out our COE analyses for the previous periods below!
Jan 2022: COE prices continue to climb, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to increase slightly
Oct 2021: Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly
It's a sign of how dire the times are for new car buyers that the axes we've used for our graphs in the previous two quarters no longer apply anymore.
Despite the towering numbers, the jumps in average COE prices in the period of Jan to March 2022 were actually generally lower than those in the previous quarter. The average COE price across Jan to Feb 2022 is 17% higher for Cat A, 12% higher for Cat B, and more than 8% higher for Cat E in the current quarter as compared to the last one. Except for Cat A, which had jumped by 16% previously, both Cats B and E had previously risen then by more than 30%.
A single digit percentage increase for Cat E may sound too low to be true, but we must remember that the open category has been at this level for a while. It neared $90,000 back in November 2021, then briefly went back down to the low eighties before shooting even higher towards $100,000, where it now hovers alongside Cat B.
The past quarter saw two major announcements hitting the automotive market. The first, already in place, was a new 220% ARF (Additional Registration Fee) rate that impacted new luxury purchases in mid-February, less than a week after it was introduced to the public. The second, set to kick in this May, is a long-overdue widening of the power band eligibility that will allow more electric vehicles to come under Category A.
Vehicle de-registration and COE supply forecasting
Based on data extrapolated from de-registrations spanning the months from January to March this year, our statistical forecasting suggests that COE supply will continue to shrink - by about 3% - for the next period between May and July 2022.
Ultimately, the supply of COEs actually dipped when we entered the February to April 2022 period - from a monthly average (Cats A, B and E combined) of 2526 across November 2021 to January 2022, to 2521 currently. For context, the monthly average across August to October 2021 was 3540.
While the gentler drop may have helped to slow the climb in prices, it certainly hasn't changed the upward trend, nor its steadiness. Will the introduction of EVs accelerate and sustain even higher premiums in Category A? It's too soon to call that.
New car pricing trend: Jan 2022 to March 2022
Once again, the figures may have been affected by the fact that COE premiums held quite steady in January, and only started picking up again towards the end of the quarter.
Most popular used cars: Dec 2021 to Feb 2022
Over the three-month period between December 2021 to February 2022, these were the five most listed used cars on sgCarMart.
| Model | Year of registration | Average depreciation (approx.) |
| Honda Vezel 1.5A X | 2016 | $11,487/yr |
| Mercedes-Benz C-Class C180 Avantgarde | 2016 | $17,995/yr |
| Toyota Corolla Altis Elegance 1.6 | 2016 | $11,017/yr |
| Honda Civic 1.6A VTi | 2018 | $11,676/yr |
| Honda Civic 1.6A VTi | 2019 | $11,410/yr |
It's once again a game of musical chairs among the top five models, with the 2016 Honda Vezel 1.5A X retaining its crown, and Civics registered in 2018 and 2019 rounding off the pack.
What's interesting, though, is the slowly amplifying impact of the current COE climate on the used car market. You'll note that average annual depreciations for used cars are on the rise, reaching new peaks in March (where the figure for the Vezel almost breached $12,000/year). Expect these to continue their ascent if the COE quota continues to shrink.
Ignoring the one-off case of the heavily-memed AE86, cars like the FD2 Honda Civic Type R and the Mitsubishi Evo X are selling in the used car market with annual depreciations in the ballpark of $20,000. Step a bit further back in time to the Evo 9 and that figure will balloon even further to approximately $40,000. Again - perhaps it's time to rethink our tale-as-old-as-time that cars are just depreciating assets.
Curious about how the car market was trending just a few months back? Check out our COE analyses for the previous periods below!
Jan 2022: COE prices continue to climb, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to increase slightly
Oct 2021: Cat B COE continues upward rise, and supply for upcoming quarter expected to shrink significantly
Sgcarmart Quotz
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- Confirmed price, No reductions
Photos by Editorial Team, Unsplash
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