Tabulated based on Land Transport Authority (LTA) data, The Straits Times predicts that COE supply for the next six months from February is expected to shrink further, which as a result, could hinder the much expected drop in quota pricing.

The supply for Cat A COEs, from February to July, could shrink by 12 percent from the current quota of 4,367. Under Cat B, the quota is expected to shrink by up to 14 percent from the current 4,478. However, the Open Category is expected to grow by 30 percent from the current 3,129. The combined total COE supply is expected to grow by no more than two percent from the current 11,972.

"Premiums will remain roughly where they are now, plus-minus 10 percent. The February to July period will be 'very challenging' but it will be better in the second half," said Daniel Chong, Volkswagen Singapore General Manager of Sales.

At the end of the latest session last week, COE premiums remained relatively high, between $73,010 for Cat B to $76,901 for Cat E. Daniel thinks the thin margin is due to sellers clearing car models that will be removed from Cat A after a slight tweak in the COE categorisation from next year.

From February 2014, cars that fall under Category A must not have a power output higher than 130bhp - which affects up to 40 car models including dominant players like the Mercedes C-Class and the BMW 3 Series. The engine output cap is believed to make the COE market a more level playing field for mass market cars.

The Straits Times believes that this could drive up demand for Cat B COEs, while Cat A prices could be reduced due to the removal of the luxury models.

However, Nicholas Wong, General Manager at Kah Motors told the local paper that might not be the case "if the latent demand is high" from buyers who have been waiting for COE supplies to increase and prices to fall. He added buyers aiming for a 1.6-litre Mercedes or BMW may instead settle for a more affordable Japanese or Korean model.

Ron Lim, General Manager of Tan Chong Motor, echoed Nicholas' comments and agreed a dip in premiums "could create a rush for Cat A cars", although the new loan restrictions will limit the number of people who can afford a car.