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Looking back on 2025 has taught us one important lesson: That a consistently increasing COE supply still doesn't guarantee lower premiums or car prices.
The past quarter saw Cat A shooting past $100,000 in May following The Car Expo, despite the current period benefitting from an increased COE supply.
Amidst increases in both COE supply and car-buying demand recently, premiums have continued to float around the $100,000 line for all categories.
COE premiums in 2024 were arguably nowhere near their 2023 peaks - but could additional reprieve come still in 2025, especially when February swings around?
Despite the increased supply, COE premiums have still been on a steady rise in recent months - but could further relief be on its way now?
Despite a COE supply-boost over the past quarter, premiums have crept (slowly) back up again, with Cat A seeing the most significant increase.
As the cut-and-fill method continues to bolster COE supply, premiums finally appear to be cooling off. Meanwhile, de-registrations are still on the rise.
Although an unprecedented 'cut-and-fill' method has increased the opacity of the COE system, the recent rise in de-registrations is still worth noting.
As COE premiums tower over at record heights - and as the LTA continues to make one-off changes - it appears unlikely that the quota will rise in November.
As the one-time adjustment of additional COEs continues to impact the coming quarters, the COE quota is projected to rise for the August to October period.