COE prices continue to climb, with COE supply projected to fall next quarter

COE price trend over the past quarter

COE prices have continued to climb across the board in the past quarter. Compared to the preceding quarter (Oct to Dec 2020), the average COE price across Jan to Mar 2021 is 10.9% higher for Cat A and B, and 14.5% higher for Cat E.

For Cat A, COE premiums after the second round of bidding in March now stand at its highest since November 2017, closing at $44,589.

Vehicle deregistration data and COE supply projection

Based on statistical forecasting using latest data released by the LTA and adjusting for the return of quota from the suspended April to June 2020 bidding exercises, the quota for the upcoming next May to July quarter is expected to decrease by 18% for passenger cars (excluding commercial vehicle and motorbikes). This is extrapolated from the lower vehicle deregistration figures in Jan to Feb 2021. Actual numbers will be announced by LTA in middle of April.

For Cat A, COE quota is projected to decrease by 16% from a monthly average of 1,766. For Cat B, COE quota is projected to decrease by 22% from a monthly average of 1,883. For Cat E, COE quota is projected to decrease by 11% from a monthly average of 592. The projected decrease in COE supply is expected to put more upwards pressure on COE prices.

New car pricing trend

Comparing car prices for popular new cars across authorised dealers, there was a 3.9% quarter on quarter increase in new car prices.

New car prices continuing to climb trends appropriately with the changes in COE premiums. This indicates continued strong buying interest in new cars.

Most listed used cars

Over the past three month period, these are the five most listed used cars on sgCarMart. This offers an overview of the used cars with the most listings on sgCarMart over the past three months.

Model	Year of registration	Average depreciation (approx.)
Honda Vezel 1.5A X	2016	$9,775/yr
Mercedes-Benz C-Class C180 Avantgarde	2017	$15,081/yr
Toyota Corolla Altis 1.6A Elegance	2019	$11,844/yr
Honda Civic 1.6A Vti	2018	$9,968/yr
Mazda 3 1.5A Sunroof	2017	$8,872/yr

For car owners who may be put off by COE premiums continuing to increase and thus make new cars more expensive, buying a used car may be a more feasible option. Looking at the most listed used cars on sgCarMart, it’s evident that affordable, practical choices like the Honda Vezel and Mazda 3 continue to be popular. For the premium segment, the Mercedes-Benz C-Class is unsurprisingly the most listed model.

The numerous relatively young cars in the used car market (five years or younger) also indicate that the car buying market remains healthy.