COE supply for private cars to rise in August 2023

Relief for car prices may yet be on the horizon: COE supply for private car categories will rise going into the quarter from August to October 2023.

The total average monthly quota across all COE categories for the upcoming quarter will stand at 3,697. This is an increase from the current average monthly quota of 3,477.

The LTA announced an unprecedented one-time adjustment to the COE supply back in mid-May, by bringing forward certificates from the guaranteed de-registrations of cars on renewed five-year COEs

Before we dive into the numbers, worth noting is that the quota for the May to July 2023 period had received a midway boost when the LTA announced that it was making an unprecedented one-time adjustment to the COE supply.

Under the adjustment, 6,000 certificates will be taken from the impending de-registrations of cars with renewed five-year COEs (which cannot be extended), then redistributed over the coming few quarters. The redistributions only impact Cat A and Cat B.

Over the upcoming August to October 2023 quarter, Cat A will now receive 700 additional certificates from the guaranteed de-registrations, while Cat B will receive 325 certificates.

The additional COEs are redistributed only to Cat A and Cat B over each quarter

The total sum of 1,025 additional COEs comes very close to the 1,027 additional COEs we had predicted in our COE forecast analysis earlier this month. 

On the whole, the increase now in total monthly COE supply is largely driven by growth across all private passenger car categories, as well as a rise in Category C, for goods vehicles and buses.

On to the numbers: The COE supply for Cat A cars (up to 1,600cc and 130bhp, or electric cars up to 110kW) in the coming quarter will hit a monthly average of 1,262, up from the average of this quarter of 1,156.

Meanwhile, the average monthly COE supply for Cat B cars (above 1,600cc or 130bhp, and electric cars with more than 110kW), meanwhile, is also set to rise from 907 to 939 come August 2023.

The COE supply for both Cat B and Cat E will also rise in August 2023 

The COE supply for Cat E will follow suit, and is set to increase to a monthly average of 259 from the 248 of the current quarter. COEs in this category can be used for any vehicle type except motorcycles but end up almost exclusively for bigger cars.

Likewise, the COE supply for commercial vehicles will climb to 228 from the current monthly average of 137. Unlike passenger cars, the population for Cat C vehicles can still grow under the LTA's rules, at a 0.25% per annum growth rate until January 2025.

Only Category D for motorcycles will see a quarter-over-quarter dip come August, dropping from 1,085 to 986 per month.

*Revised numbers after addition of COEs from one-time adjustment