COE supply to climb 8% for the upcoming quarter

COE premiums may have bounced up last week, but relief is now at hand: The LTA has announced that there will be a total of 17,133 COEs available across all categories for the quarter from February 2025 to April 2025.

This figure is 8% higher than the total of 15,834 COEs available in the current quarter that spans from November 2024 to January 2025. This increase in available COEs is partly due to the start of the added injection of 20,000 COEs announced in October 2024. A total of 2,000 COEs for Category A and 1,178 COEs for Category B have been added from both future guaranteed de-registrations as well as from this pool of 20,000 added COE supply for this quarter.

Those looking to secure a new car might be able to get some relief as the COE supply is set to increase across all private car categories in the upcoming quarter

This means that the supply of COEs will increase by 10.3% in Cat A and 10% in Cat B when comparing the upcoming quarter against the current one. COE supply for Cat E is set to increase by 10.7% in the upcoming quarter. The total available COEs for motorcycles, meanwhile, will stay at 3,105 for the upcoming quarter, thanks to an injection of a total of 1,023 COEs for category D.

The changes to the COE supply this upcoming quarter are replicated in the table below:

The next quota announcement for the bidding period of May 2025 to July 2025 will be made in April 2025.

While this growth in COE supply will certainly be welcomed by those currently shopping for a new vehicle, it is worth noting that the increase in COE supply for the quarter of November 2024 to January 2025 comprised of a total of 1,390 COEs added into Category A and 1,060 COEs added into Cat B. Compare this against the 2,000 COEs for Category A and 1,178 COEs for Cat B that are being added for the upcoming quarter and we can gleam two important facts.

Firstly, with the total supply injection this quarter numbering approximately 850 more than at the supply announcement for the last quarter, it looks like the LTA is set to deliver those 20,000 COEs over the course of the next two years. Secondly, and more pertinent for those undecided on what car they want to purchase, is the fact that it looks like a majority of the COEs injected as part of the poll of 20,000 COEs is set to be poured into Category A, since the category saw the greatest increase in total injected supply this session.

For those thinking of buying a car a few years down the line, however, we still stand on the point that it still remains hard to predict where premiums are headed for the rest of the year: As we mentioned when the 20,000 injection was first announced, this 20,000 supply injection is but a small percentage when compared to our total vehicle population, which stood at 957,675 as of 31 December 2024.

And all these expected changes to future COE supply still come under the assumption that the LTA makes no further changes to how it continues to calculate available COE supply with each coming quarter. Given that premiums for Categories B and E continued to spike last session even when it was already made known beforehand that more COE supply would be in the pipeline - it is entirely conceivable that the authority will continue to make adjustments to the COE supply further into 2025 if premiums continue to climb.