COE Analysis Apr' 2026: Is real change finally on its way?

COE price trend over the past quarter: January to March 2026 vs October to December 2025

The term 'blink and you'll miss it' may very well describe the breakneck speed at which the first quarter of 2026 has passed us by.

But between a motor show with record-breaking attendance figures, the arrival of even more new brands, and even an industry-shaking announcement, there was no way Singaporean drivers could have overlooked the flurry of activity that landed on our shores in the mere span of three months.

Over the past year, the trend lines for Cat B and E have started to slant downwards just that slightly - but Cat A is still on the rise 

Considering that those events are inextricably linked to how COE premiums have trended, it would be remiss to leave them out of the conversation. But first, let's hit rewind on the charts.

It might be surprising to learn that when averaged out across three months, COE premiums fell across the board in the first quarter of 2026 from where they stood in the final quarter of 2025.

Among all three passenger car categories, Category B, which is typically tied to larger and more premium cars, saw the biggest dip of 9.3%. Following closely behind was the open Category E, falling by 7.8%. The averaged-out decline in Category A premiums was the least pronounced: A gentler 5.8%.

The 2026 iteration of the Singapore Motor Show drew in approximately 41,000 visitors - 8,000 more than in 2025

But don't be fooled into interpreting this as good news. It must be remembered that the last quarter of 2025 saw premiums scale incredible heights, with the first bidding session of October 2025 seeing Cat A reach its all-time high of $128,105 (Cat B and Cat E were no slouch too, at $141,000 and $140,009 respectively). The fact that premiums have fallen since is thus not to be uncritically celebrated. In fact, it's a shame that they haven't fallen even more.  

Back in the present, you'll further note that the most recent COE bidding session on 8 April 2026 also saw uniform rises across all passenger car categories, with Cat A, Cat B and Cat E standing above $110,000 now. That sort of money could have gotten you a well-specced family sedan pre-COVID inclusive of COE.

As mentioned earlier, the lower numbers also obscure the flurry of changes in the market over the last three months.

Since 1 January 2026, hybrids like the Nissan Serena e-POWER and Toyota Noah have no longer enjoyed any rebates under the nation's Vehicular Emissions Scheme

Let's set some context first: Since 1 January 2026, VES and EEAI rebates have both been revised downwards. Already, coming into the year, that had meant less rebates upfront than those enjoyed by buyers in 2025.

But then came one headline-grabbing COE bidding session in February: When the Cat A premium shot past Cat B's.

While many expected the 2026 Singapore Motor Show to influence the swinging of premiums, the real shake-up landed in the wake of Singapore's Budget 2026 announcement in February. 

There were reports of an uptick in interest in electric models in the immediate wake of the PARF rebate reductions

With it came the news that PARF rebates would be slashed by 45 percentage points across the board, a move that saw buyers shun Cat B models (which were generally affected more adversely by the chances) and gravitate toward EV models at showrooms in the immediate aftermath.

The news that Cat A had overtaken Cat B, in turn, prompted another Q&A session in Parliament that led to a confirmation by the authorities that it would seriously re-evaluate our current COE system in order for it to more accurately capture prevailing market trends. An announcement released later by the LTA even specifically pointed to the trend of EV manufacturers 'detuning' their high-end vehicles as a likely reason for the convergence between both categories.

'De-tuning' electric models to slot them into Category A has become a widespread practice, regardless of brand or market segment (Pictured: The Cat A-friendly Volvo EX30 and MINI Aceman E)

As such, while the market continues to process the repercussions of the PARF rebate reductions (higher depreciation values, a shift in car-buying preferences, and a potential change to the calculation of car loans are all on the table), sweeping changes to the car-ownership experience now seem imminent again. 

How exactly the government intends to tweak the COE system remains black-boxed for now. But one can at least hope that any reforms will better serve those who have a humble dream to own their own set of wheels in Singapore. 

Car de-registrations used to determine how COE quota for the upcoming quarter was calculated - but the LTA has since taken over the reins with new inputs to help manage the supply of certificates

Car de-registrations over the last 12 months

While the litany of additional factors makes predicting the COE supply for the upcoming quarter an impossible task now, Sgcarmart continues to monitor vehicle de-registrations on our shores. 

This is based on the last 'undiluted' calculation method, which relied on the 12-month moving average of de-registrations to determine supply for the following period. 

Extrapolating 11 months of de-registration data from April 2025 to February 2026, the 12-month moving average of de-registrations is projected to rise by 4.9%.

Cat A is projected to see the biggest rise of 7%, with Cat B set to rise by a gentler 5.8%. Conversely, Cat C, which is used to register commercial vehicles, is projected to fall by 3.9%.

While it's harder to say now how the total quota will trend for upcoming periods, two data points do serve as helpful indicators.

Firstly, a historical overview of how COE supply has trended in the last five quarters has already indicated that it is starting to taper off. In fact, the current period, spanning February to April, already marks a slight 0.8% drop from the previous one. 

Putting these hard figures aside, there's also the official line from the authorities. The LTA itself has already stated on multiple occasions that COE supply will start to hit its peak supply period starting in 2026 - meaning that we have already entered the peak supply period. 

As the data shows, don't expect COE supply to see drastic rises over the next few quarters; in fact, supply dips are on the cards.

The three-month average of prices for the new cars we monitor fell in Q1 2026 - though not to the same degree that COE premiums did 

New car pricing: Jan to March 2026

Sgcarmart tracks a pool of popular models from authorised dealers to analyse the general price trends of new cars.

When averaged out over the first quarter of 2026, the models we monitor reflected a 2.7% decrease in new car prices against the three-month average for the last quarter of 2025. 

Despite the dip, the lower degree of movement (in relation to how COE premiums trended) does indicate that dealers - as a whole - were less willing to let their listed car prices shift directly in tandem to COE prices.

On BYD's price sheet dated 20 February, the Dynamic 100kW and Premium variants of the Sealion 7 were listed for exactly the same price

Among the notable models were the Jaecoo J6 RWD, whose listed price effectively remained flat across January and February; the Mazda 3's price, on the other hand, stayed level across February and March.

Perhaps most interestingly, BYD's Cat A-classified Sealion 7 Dynamic 100kW and Cat B Sealion 7 Premium were being listed for exactly the same price on the brand's price sheet in late-February. (You'll note that this was in the immediate aftermath of Cat A superseding Cat B.)

The scattered pricing strategies especially among those who are still relatively new to the car market may suggest that - barring huge swings in COE prices - some dealers are adopting a wait-and-see approach with how they price their cars.

Prices for used cars appear to have stayed relatively level compared to the previous quarter

Used car listings: December 2025 to February 2026 

Over the three-month period between December 2025 to February 2026, these were the five most listed used cars on Sgcarmart.

While you might note that the annual depreciation figures for our defending evergreen marker - the first-gen Honda Vezel - have gone up, it should be pointed out that the listing now reflect 2017 registered cars. Previously, 2016-registered units were the ones perched atop of the leaderboard - but it's possible that these have been superseded, because most of these units have either reached, or are nearing the end of their 10-year COE cycles. 

Elsewhere, the depreciation figures for other popular names like the 2017-registered Nissan Qashqai and 2018-registered Honda Civic (with the 1.6-litre engine) are not far off where they stood in the previous quarter - a sign that the used cars dealers too are adopting a wait-and-see approach with how they price their cars. 

Again, don't mistakenly equate the lack of price movements for a lack of activity within the market. In the coming quarters, it will be interesting to see how the PARF rebate reductions and any potential changes to the current COE system drive demand for used cars in Singapore. 

Don't forget to check out our past COE analyses here! 

COE Analysis Dec '25: More of the same ($100k COEs)?

COE Analysis Oct '25: Premiums sizzle as 2026 looms over

COE Analysis July '25: More COEs, but premiums still rising